Iran's economy and stock markets will face volatility, trade strain, and currency pressure in Q1 2026.

“The Feb 28 strikes caused immediate surges in oil prices to over $80, a 9.57% crash in regional stock indices, and intensified inflation exceeding 40%.”

Iran will experience a high-intensity military crisis or war involving its internal security and ballistic infrastructure.

“The US and Israel launched 'Operation Epic Fury' on Feb 28, 2026, targeting IRGC headquarters, missile production sites, and the Iranian Navy.”

Iran will engage in indirect diplomatic talks or sound out terms for ending conflict amid high regional tension.

“On March 4, reports suggested Iran indirectly sounded out the CIA about terms to end the conflict after the failure of earlier February talks.”

Iran's healthcare system will face disruptions, including hospital evacuations or damage to medical centers.

“WHO confirmed the evacuation of Gandhi Hospital in Tehran on March 2 due to collateral damage from strikes, with other centers in Sarab and Hamadan also hit.”

Iran's transport and communication networks, including the Strait of Hormuz, will face severe disruptions.

“Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping on Feb 28, while internet access across the country has been severely limited or shut down.”

Iran will suffer from a severe water crisis and record-low reservoir levels in early 2026.

“Iran is facing its worst drought in decades as of late 2025/early 2026, with Tehran's Latian Dam holding less than 10% capacity.”

Iran will experience mass social unrest and a violent crackdown in early 2026.

“Mass protests erupted Dec 28, 2025, through Jan 2026, resulting in a brutal crackdown where thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.”

Iran faces a leadership crisis, succession struggle, or power struggle during early March 2026

“After the assassination of Khamenei [Feb 28], a leadership crisis began, with multiple potential candidates being named.”

Mojtaba Khamenei is announced as the new Supreme Leader of Iran on March 9, 2026

“Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, was announced as the new supreme leader on 9 March.”

Expediency Discernment Council suspends the Assembly of Experts to establish a provisional leadership structure in March 2026

“the Expediency Discernment Council moved to suspend the Assembly of Experts—the body constitutionally responsible for selecting the supreme leader—and shift authority to a provisional leadership structure.”

Interim Leadership Council including the President and Chief Justice takes power following the death of the Supreme Leader

“After the assassination of Khamenei, an Interim Leadership Council took over his role... established on the morning of 1 March 2026.”

Iranian Rial collapses to a record low of 1.5 million per US dollar by early 2026

“as of this week [Jan 15, 2026], it trades at around 1.5 million rials to the dollar... its depreciation accelerated in 2025.”

Inflation in Iran projected to remain above 40 percent throughout 2026

“the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting inflation... remaining above 40pc in 2026.”

Implementation of nationwide fuel rationing and transport restrictions in Iranian cities in March 2026

“Fuel shortages have triggered strict rationing measures, including an odd-even vehicle system and controlled sales.”

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is assassinated in an airstrike on February 28, 2026

“On 28 February 2026, Khamenei was assassinated in an airstrike conducted by Israel and the United States.”

Iran's Defence Council threatens to mine the Persian Gulf in response to invasion threats on March 23, 2026

“Iran's Defence Council also threatened on Monday [March 23] to deploy naval mines across the 'entire Persian Gulf' if a land invasion takes place.”

Saudi Arabia expels the Iranian military attache and four embassy staff on March 21, 2026

“Saudi Arabia has ordered Iran's military attache and four other embassy staff to leave the kingdom... declaring them persona non grata... on Saturday [March 21].”

Iranian hospitals overwhelmed by 15,000 war-related casualties in the first half of March 2026

“Iranian hospitals have received roughly 15,000 war wounded since the US-Israeli military coalition launched strikes 16 days ago [March 16].”

Medical workers in Tehran protest against air strikes targeting healthcare facilities on March 7, 2026

“Doctors and medical students gather outside Gandi Hospital... to protest attacks targeting medical centres and health facilities... on 7 March 2026.”

Strategic damage to at least 40 Iranian energy facilities reported by international observers in March 2026

“At least 40 energy facilities 'severely' affected: IEA Chief.”

Bombing of a desalination plant on Qeshm Island results in water shortages for local villages in early March 2026

“US committed a blatant and desperate crime by attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Qeshm Island... Water supply in 30 villages has been impacted.”

Toxic black rain falls in Tehran following air strikes on fuel depots on March 8, 2026

“Fires burned for hours... turned the morning rain black, falling dozens of miles away... on March 8, 2026.”

Presidential warning regarding the potential mass evacuation of Tehran due to sinking land and water crisis

“President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in November that Tehran's residents may eventually have to evacuate the capital city, which is sinking as dried-up aquifers give way.”

Public execution of three protesters in Qom for alleged killing of security forces during 2026 unrest

“three protesters named Saleh Mohammadi, Saeed Davodi and Mehdi Ghasemi were hanged 'in the presence of a group of people in Qom' on 19 March 2026.”

Significant nationwide internet blackout reported in Iran during the first quarter of 2026

“Following the protests, the massacres, and the 2026 Internet blackout in Iran, the uncertain situation has strained the economy further.”